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阿弥陀佛

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一直从事气象预报、服务建模实践应用。 注重气象物理场、实况场、地理信息、本体知识库、分布式气象内容管理系统建立。 对Barnes客观分析, 小波,计算神经网络、信任传播、贝叶斯推理、专家系统、网络本体语言有一定体会。 一直使用Java、Delphi、Prolog、SQL编程。

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201708120350 融合参数调整前后对比  

2017-08-12 12:22:17|  分类: 物侯气象 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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预报有降水的基数明显扩大,漏报率,击中率不变。表明降雨面积扩大后,评分未变。
时间,降水(降水级),击中率,空报率,漏报率,总样本,样本1,预报1,击中1,空报1,漏报1
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.08,40402,7536,6974,6954,20,582
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(0.10mm),1.00,0.00,0.04,40402,5833,5603,5580,23,253
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(1.00mm),0.97,0.03,0.01,40402,3323,3373,3277,96,46
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(5.00mm),0.99,0.01,0.02,40402,1085,1073,1059,14,26
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(10.00mm),0.97,0.03,0.01,40402,437,447,432,15,5
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(15.00mm),0.96,0.04,0.01,40402,229,236,227,9,2
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(20.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,40402,126,134,126,8,0
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(25.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,40402,75,80,75,5,0
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(30.00mm),0.92,0.08,0.02,40402,48,51,47,4,1
时间,降水(降水级),击中率,空报率,漏报率,总样本,样本1,预报1,击中1,空报1,漏报1
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.07,40398,4286,4008,3990,18,296
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(0.10mm),0.99,0.01,0.04,40398,2843,2749,2735,14,108
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(1.00mm),0.93,0.07,0.02,40398,834,879,820,59,14
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(2.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.00,40398,423,443,421,22,2
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(5.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.01,40398,137,143,136,7,1
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(10.00mm),0.87,0.13,0.00,40398,33,38,33,5,0
时间,降水(降水级),击中率,空报率,漏报率,总样本,样本1,预报1,击中1,空报1,漏报1
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.06,80796,6829,6438,6411,27,418
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(0.10mm),0.99,0.01,0.04,80796,3980,3863,3834,29,146
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(1.00mm),0.91,0.09,0.01,80796,817,887,809,78,8
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(2.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.00,80796,385,406,384,22,1
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(5.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,80796,85,90,85,5,0
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(10.00mm),0.90,0.10,0.00,80796,9,10,9,1,0
201708120350# 定量统计文件/ser/data/calf/logs/RMSE/2017/20170812/201708120350.txt
201708120350# 雨量定性统计文件/ser/data/calf/logs/PRE/2017/20170812/201708120350.txt
=============================================================================
[rgf@10 20170812]$ more 201708120350.txt.old
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.07,40367,7499,6967,6946,21,553
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(0.10mm),1.00,0.00,0.04,40367,5828,5599,5576,23,252
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(1.00mm),0.97,0.03,0.01,40367,3321,3371,3275,96,46
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(5.00mm),0.99,0.01,0.02,40367,1084,1072,1058,14,26
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(10.00mm),0.97,0.03,0.01,40367,437,447,432,15,5
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(15.00mm),0.96,0.04,0.01,40367,229,236,227,9,2
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(20.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,40367,126,134,126,8,0
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(25.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,40367,75,80,75,5,0
201708120350,R_前1小时雨量(30.00mm),0.92,0.08,0.02,40367,48,51,47,4,1
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.07,40363,4283,4005,3987,18,296
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(0.10mm),0.99,0.01,0.04,40363,2841,2747,2733,14,108
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(1.00mm),0.93,0.07,0.02,40363,833,878,819,59,14
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(2.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.00,40363,423,443,421,22,2
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(5.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.01,40363,137,143,136,7,1
201708120350,R_前10分钟雨量(10.00mm),0.87,0.13,0.00,40363,33,38,33,5,0
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(0.01mm),1.00,0.00,0.06,80726,6823,6433,6406,27,417
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(0.10mm),0.99,0.01,0.04,80726,3977,3860,3831,29,146
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(1.00mm),0.91,0.09,0.01,80726,817,887,809,78,8
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(2.00mm),0.95,0.05,0.00,80726,385,406,384,22,1
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(5.00mm),0.94,0.06,0.00,80726,85,90,85,5,0
201708120350,R_5分钟雨量(10.00mm),0.90,0.10,0.00,80726,9,10,9,1,0
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